In this guide 6 sections
Plan from three numbers. Confirmed cake and wholesale orders come first, then your usual counter quantity for that weekday, then last evening’s closing count of what is still sellable. Check the total against ingredient stock before the supplier cut-off, and record what sold, what was left and what went into the bin.
A Plan Needs Three Numbers, Not a Feeling
Many bakeries bake by feel. They set quantities from how yesterday went, so some days the puffs are gone by eleven and on others a full tray of pastries reaches the bin unrecorded.
A workable plan starts from confirmed orders: the custom cakes due tomorrow with their pickup times, and the standing bread and bun orders from nearby cafés and the canteen. None of that is a guess.
On top of it sits your counter quantity for that day of the week, adjusted by whatever was left over last evening and is still sellable.
Set a Counter Quantity for Each Item, by Day of the Week
Saturday is not Tuesday. A bakery beside an office park empties its shelves on weekdays and sits quiet on Sunday, while one beside a school or a market often shows the opposite pattern.
Take eight weeks of counter sales, split them by weekday, and set a quantity for each item on each day, then review the figures once a month.
Note when each item sells out, not only how many were sold, because the sell-out time shows demand the tray size hid. Gone by eleven means undersupplied.
Count What Is Left at Closing, Every Single Day
This habit changes a bakery. Draw three columns: made, sold, left.
Split the last column into what can be sold tomorrow and what goes in the bin, because bread keeps and cream pastries do not. Mixing them hides the cost.
Give the job to one named person on each shift and get it on paper before anybody goes home, with the shift lead signing the sheet. A count rebuilt from memory next morning is worse than no count at all, because people believe it and plan tomorrow’s bake around a number that never existed.
Check the Plan Against the Store Before the Evening Order
A plan is only real if the flour, butter, cream and packing material it needs are sitting in the store when the first batch goes into the oven. Running out mid-batch is a planning failure.
Price the plan in ingredients, check it against your inventory, and send the purchase order to your flour and dairy suppliers the same evening. Orders placed in the morning arrive late.
Log each batch as it comes out of the oven: product, quantity, date, shift and the person who made it, written on the tray label. That record answers the food inspector. It shows whose batches return.
Read the Wastage Record Weekly, and Know When Software Helps
Once a week, sit with the closing counts and look for the same item turning up in the bin column again and again across three or four days. The cause is one of three. Over-made, priced wrong, or baked too early.
If you bake a short list from one counter and sell out most days, a whiteboard and a closing register will do the job. Spend the money on the oven.
Once custom cake orders, standing wholesale orders and a second outlet are in play, the arithmetic no longer fits in anyone’s head. A bakery management system builds the daily production plan from confirmed orders and counter quantities, tracks ingredients as they are used, and reports what follows.
- Sales by product and outlet, and by hour of the day
- Wastage and unsold stock by product
- Ingredient use against production
- Custom cake orders falling due today and this week
- Wholesale customers’ outstanding dues
Daily bake and closing count sheet
One sheet per day with each product down the left and columns for planned, confirmed orders, actually made, sold, sellable tomorrow and thrown away. Keep it for a fortnight. The over-made items then stand out.
Open a blank worksheet to printQuestions owners ask
How do I decide how much to bake each morning?
Add the confirmed cake and wholesale orders for the day to your counter quantity for that weekday, then subtract anything from last evening that is still sellable. Review the weekday quantities once a month. Base it on eight weeks of sales.
Is a notebook enough, or do I need bakery software?
A notebook is enough if you bake a short list, sell from one counter and usually sell out before the afternoon, with no orders arriving by phone. Software pays off when custom cake orders and standing café orders arrive on WhatsApp, or when a second outlet draws on the same kitchen.
Does bakery software handle standing orders from cafés and hotels?
Yes: standing wholesale orders are entered once, feed the daily production plan every morning, and keep appearing until the customer changes or cancels them. Each wholesale customer also carries the credit they owe, deliveries go out with a bill, and dues show per customer instead of being rebuilt at month end.