Demand Forecasting at Your Ordering Level
Demand forecasting projects what you will need from your own order, dispatch and consumption history. It is built at the level you plan against, by item and warehouse or by category and month.
What the forecast has to know
- Festival weeks and the buying that runs ahead of them
- Monsoon and season effects on the lines that move with weather
- Shutdowns, strikes and the weeks a branch was simply closed
- Schemes and discounts that pulled demand forward from the next month
- Stock-outs, where low sales meant no stock rather than no demand
The stock-out trap
Stock-outs catch many forecasting attempts. An item sold four units last March because only four were in the warehouse, and the model learns a demand of four. The shortage then repeats each year, and the forecast confirms its own mistake. Marking those periods with your stores team is tedious work. It changes the result more than any choice of algorithm.
How the output is used
A forecast is an input to a purchase decision, not the decision. It is shown with a range, alongside last year’s figures and what is on order, so a planner can apply what is known about a supplier or a customer. Where the range is wide, that is itself the message: the line is unpredictable, so hold cover instead of trusting one number.
Frequently asked questions
How far ahead can demand forecasting see?
It depends on the business and the line. For most trading and manufacturing businesses a forecast is useful for a few weeks to a few months, and beyond that the answer is a range and not a figure.
Does this work with data from our ERP or POS?
Yes, where the history can be read and item codes are consistent. Where one product sits under several codes, they are consolidated first, or its demand appears as three weak lines.
What about a brand new product with no history?
There is nothing to learn from, so the product is placed by comparison with similar items and adjusted as real sales arrive. A confident forecast for a new line is a guess.
Can the forecast feed our reorder process?
Yes, as a suggested quantity that a planner approves and not an automatic purchase order. Automatic ordering makes sense only after forecasts have been checked against outcomes over a longer period.
Tell us what you need.
Share your requirements and one of our engineers will come back to you within one business day.
What happens after you share your requirements
- A senior engineer reads your answers. Nobody phones first.
- Within one business day you get a written note: what we understood, what we would start with, and the questions we still have.
- If it fits, a proposal follows with the order of work, what we need from you and what you receive at each step.
- No call is booked and nothing is paid until you have read the note. Your details stay with us.
Start with your requirements
Seven short steps that tell us what you need. A senior engineer reads them before anyone gets in touch.
Share your requirements