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GullySystem
CRM · Solutions

Put a figure on the month ahead from orders, open deals and last year’s season.

Sales Forecasting puts a figure on the month ahead using what you already have: confirmed orders, open deals with a closing date, and what the same month did last year. It is a judgement, written down and checked later. Purchase and production then work from something better than a feeling on the thirtieth.

What it is

Everybody forecasts. A garment unit buys fabric for what it expects, a dealer books stock before the season, and a services firm hires before the work arrives. The number usually comes from the owner, on the thirtieth.

Written down, the same judgement improves. Committed orders, deals likely to close and last year’s figure sit together. Later, the guess is marked against what happened.

What it replaces

What your team uses today.

The module takes over these, one at a time, so nothing has to stop while it is set up.

  • A guess given verbally on the last day
  • A spreadsheet of last year copied forward
  • Separate lists of orders and deals
Where it goes wrong today

The problems this is meant to ease.

Forecast is a feeling

The figure for next month is a guess made on the last day. Purchase and production plan from it anyway.

Orders and deals counted apart

Confirmed orders live in a register and open deals in another. Nobody adds them.

Seasons forgotten

Last year’s festival month is not looked at. Stock runs short again.

Nobody commits to a figure

Executives are not asked for a figure. When a month goes wrong, no number traces back to a person.

Forecasts left unchecked

A figure is stated and not compared with sales. The same error repeats.

Inside the module

What sales forecasting does.

Three inputs, one figure

Confirmed orders, open deals with an expected month, and the same month last year. You see which part carries the number.

By executive, area and item

A forecast for the northern area is more useful than one for the company. Purchase buys per item and not per sales value.

The commitment your team gives

Each executive marks what they will close. Their past commitments against actuals appear next to it, which settles the argument quietly.

Seasons you already know

Wedding months, the rainy season, major festivals and school admission weeks. Last year’s shape is on the screen while you set this year’s.

Checked against what happened

Forecast and actual for every past month, kept side by side. The habit of over-promising becomes visible in a quarter.

Where it gets used

What this looks like in a working week.

Illustrative scenarios, written to show the shape of the work. They are not accounts of client systems.

Month-ahead forecast

The sales head combines orders, deals and last year’s same month. Each executive adds a commitment.

Purchase planning

The purchase in-charge reads the forecast by item. Orders to suppliers follow the figure, not a hunch.

Mid-month change

A large deal slips. The commitment changes and the history shows when and by whom.

Review after the month

The owner sees forecast against actual by area. Notes explain what went wrong.

Who touches it

The people who open this every day.

Sales head

Puts the month together from what the executives commit, and trims the two figures that look optimistic.

Owner

Decides on stock, staff and borrowing with a number he can question line by line.

Purchase or production in-charge

Buys raw material against expected items and not against a total that hides which sizes are needed.

How it is set up

From first conversation to daily use.

  1. Review past months

    Share sales and orders for earlier months. A note shows seasons and the patterns found.

  2. Choose the cuts

    Decide how to split the forecast: executive, area or item. A sample month appears for trial.

  3. Back-test

    A past month is forecast and compared with its real sales. The team discusses the gaps.

  4. Brief the sales head and executives

    Each group sees how commitments are entered. A short guide follows.

  5. Live month

    The forecast is made for the coming month. The review after the month closes checks it.

Measuring it

How you would know it is working.

Record where you stand before it goes live, so the change is measured against your own figures.

  • Forecast against actual, by month and area
  • Commitments changed during the month, with the person
  • Open deals with a closing date in the month
  • Confirmed orders against forecast, by item
  • Months with a note explaining the miss
How it fits

It is one part of a system, not an island.

A module earns its place by what it passes to the next one. These are the connections we set up most often.

  • Pipeline management
  • Opportunity management
  • Order management
  • Production planning
  • Dashboards and KPIs
Common questions

Questions owners ask about sales forecasting.

Can it predict sales on its own?

No, and be careful of anyone who says otherwise. Software can show your history, your open deals and your seasons clearly. The judgement stays with the people who know the market, and this only holds them to it.

Does forecasting help when our sales depend on tenders?

Partly. Tender results are lumpy, and no pattern will smooth them. What helps is separating committed work from tender hopes, so the factory is not staffed for an order that may never come.

Are two years of data in our accounting software enough?

It is a reasonable start. Two years gives you season shapes, and monthly sales by item can be pulled from your accounting software at set-up. Anything shorter is history and not a pattern.

Who should own the forecast?

One person, usually the sales head. Shared ownership means nobody is answerable when the month falls short. The owner can override the figure, and the override is kept so the reason is not lost.

Which inputs shape a forecasting quotation?

The cuts you want, the history available and the links to pipeline, orders and production planning. More cuts mean more views. Every cut and link is named in the quotation, and any can be dropped.

What decides the time before a forecast can be made?

The history you can supply. Confirmed orders, open deals, last year’s same month and commitments by executive come first. Comparison with actuals follows. The proposal states when each stage lands.

Talk to us

Tell us how you handle sales forecasting today.

A spreadsheet, a register or another system: say which, and we will tell you plainly what is worth changing.

What happens after you share your requirements

  1. A senior engineer reads your answers. Nobody phones first.
  2. Within one business day you get a written note: what we understood, what we would start with, and the questions we still have.
  3. If it fits, a proposal follows with the order of work, what we need from you and what you receive at each step.
  4. No call is booked and nothing is paid until you have read the note. Your details stay with us.

Start with your requirements

Seven short steps that tell us what you need. A senior engineer reads them before anyone gets in touch.

Share your requirements